Fat-pitch.blogspot.com Website Review

Summary:  Emerging markets are in a bear market. Europe and the Nasdaq are getting close. After falling 10% in October, SPX has been unable to sustain a rally. Even bearish sentiment, washed out breadth and the prospect of Santa Claus cant seem to rally stocks. In real time, corrections always feel like they are the end of the bull market: the price pattern is bearish and the news emphasizes stories about a likely recession, poor forward earnings and geopolitical risks. Yet corrections usually happen every 18 months, and the current one has so far not been especially long or de*p. That is not to suggest that investors be complacent or dismissive of mounting risk. SPX had formed a topping pattern in August, and events since then have only strengthened this pattern. But there is little evidence of the underlying stress that is normally as*ociated with big problems. For all the recent volatility, it is worth noting that the low in SPX was in October, 6 weeks ago. Everything since then has been This is not a market trying to efficiently discount next years growth; its a market mostly driven by fear and emotion. The correction from the September all-time high (ATH) is now in its 11th week. Aside from the NDX, all the US indices are now negative for the year. So are treasuries (TLT). Whats worked well so far in 2018? Volatility, which is up more than 40% (table from alphatrends.net Summary: The macro economic story is starting to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth, but there is a very important exception: weakness in housing is apparent. If this persists and other measures, especially recession in the past 40 years (arrows). The lag between inversion and the start of the next recession has been long: at least 8 months and. 3Q CORPORATE RESULTS WERE GREAT. THE OUTLOOK FOR 2019 LOOKS FAR TOO OPTIMISTIC. Summary: Overall, corporate results in the third quarter were excellent. S&P sales grew 11%, earnings rose 30% and profit margins