Recessionalert.com Website Review

We are  focused on U.S recession forecasting, dating and probability estimation using  quantitative econometric models and statistical component data become available, with detailed reports available to subscribers on a weekly basis. We have no interest in promoting specific shares, commodities, structured funds or political views. Our only interest is the accuracy of our models, meaning you can be draw-downs, but avoiding or hedging them will help preserve your capital and can significantly boost portfolio performance. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.